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NYT on Wii Software Sales According to (banned site) and Pacter. guess which first?

Gaborn

Member
Nintendo sits atop the home video-game market. Its Wii, though less technologically advanced than Microsoft’s Xbox 360 or Sony’s PlayStation 3, continues to outsell those machines and is now in more than 20 million homes.

So why are retailers having so much trouble selling Wii games?

Take Super Smash Bros. Brawl. It was one the most hotly anticipated video games of the year; it sold more than 1.4 million copies during the first week of its release, in early March, and broke records for Nintendo of America.

“We certainly have a built-in fan base for Smash,” said Denise Kaigler, Nintendo of America’s vice president for corporate affairs. “I’m hoping that we can continue to generate success and awareness of the game.”

But sales dropped more than 90 percent over the first four weeks, according to estimates from VG Chartz, a team of analysts who study video-game sales.

Some major retail chains — including Wal-Mart and Toys “R” Us — have already begun bundling the Smash Bros. game with Wii machines for sales online, a sign that the base of hard-core gamers who went looking for the game has been depleted.

Retailers confirm the sharp drop. “We sold a couple thousand copies in the first week,” said Xavier Pervez, assistant manager at a GameStop in Fairfield, Conn. “It’s dropped off significantly now, maybe 100 in each of the last couple weeks.”

Toys “R” Us has instructed its sales staff to warn customers that some Wiis cannot read the Smash Bros. disc, and to refuse to exchange the game if customers later claim it is defective. Some parents who receive that warning are just as happy to buy a different game instead. But Nintendo claims few Wiis are subject to the malfunction, and Toys “R” Us sales staff said few customers have been dissuaded from buying or keeping the game.

“The number we got back for return was pretty minimal,” a saleswoman, Christina Giori, said. “Maybe eight copies out of 500. It’s something Nintendo’s really trying to crack down on.”

A number of games that garnered critical acclaim in recent months, notably the cartoonish action-adventure game Zack & Wiki and the off-kilter action-adventure No More Heroes, have yielded disappointing sales.

Over the first three months of the year, only three other Wii titles broke the list of top 10 best-selling games compiled by the NPD Group, a market research firm: Super Mario Galaxy, Guitar Hero III and Wii Play, a sports game that comes with the purchase of a much-needed additional game controller. The Wii may not be behind the success of all those titles, though; Guitar Hero, for example, sold 2.2 million copies for the Wii, but 2.8 million copies for the Xbox 360 and almost 5 million for two versions of the PlayStation.

The problem is that, in marketing the Wii, Nintendo cast a wide net and caught more than the big fish. The Wii’s innovative motion-sensitive controller and a price lower than the rival machines appeal to a broader audience than the traditional market of young male hard-core gamers. Younger children, women and older consumers, who historically have not been sought by the video-game industry, have discovered video games through the Wii — just not that many of them.

These new gamers are content with the games they have, often going no further than the Wii Sports game that comes with the machine. They don’t buy new games with the fervor of a traditional gamer who is constantly seeking new stimulation.

The average Wii owner buys only 3.7 games a year, compared with 4.7 for Xbox 360 owners and 4.6 for PlayStation 3 owners, said a Wedbush Morgan analyst, Michael Pachter. “It reflects the broadening of the demographic,” he said. “Nintendo’s market doesn’t feel the same sense of urgency to buy every game that’s coming out.”

“You don’t see a lot of titles that reach 30 to 40 percent of the installed base,” said a Lazard Capital analyst, Colin Sebastian. “My in-laws in Texas have a Wii sitting on their living-room floor next to the TV, which to me is kind of amazing. They have Wii Sports, a Brain Age game, Wii Play. That’s about it.”

Part of the problem, analysts say, is that other game makers have yet to embrace unconventional advertising methods that can reach this broader audience. Nintendo did it by promoting its memory game Brain Age on the radio.

“Advertising on GameInformer and 1up.com just isn’t reaching this audience,” Mr. Pachter said. “When you make a game like Zack & Wiki or Boogie, which turns the hard core off and doesn’t reach the masses, then you’re in trouble.”

Still, not all third-party publishers have found the Wii market difficult to crack. Multiplatform games like Ubisoft’s Rayman: Raving Rabbids, a cartoon action-adventure, have found receptive audiences.

Hudson Soft has had success with titles including Sudoku, crossword puzzles, jigsaw puzzles and fishing games.

“The kind of person that buys a Wii is not the same kind of person that buys a PS3 or an Xbox,” said John Greiner, the chief executive of Hudson Entertainment, the North American arm of Hudson Soft. “You have to be very specific when you design a game and target not only the gameplay mechanics for that user, but also the marketing for that kind of a product launch.”

Hudson has also benefited from an especially close relationship with Nintendo. Hudson developed Mario Party 8, consistently one of the Wii’s top sellers, and has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the Wii Virtual Console, which charges users to play classic video games.

Nintendo itself seems primarily focused on expanding this casual audience, while continuing to deliver sequels to its most beloved franchises including Mario Kart Wii, the latest incarnation of its popular driving simulator, which will be released next week.

Ms. Kaigler, the Nintendo spokeswoman, says the company hopes Mario Kart will serve as a “bridge title” between casual gamers and core fans, with the help of a steering wheel device into which a Wii controller can fit.

Wii Fit, an exercise game due next month, is expected to receive more marketing dollars than any game in Nintendo’s history, Mr. Pachter said — and the money will not be spent wooing young men. “Wii Fit is just not aimed at hard-core gamers,” Mr. Pachter said. “It’s definitely aimed at the Oprah crowd. I bet they sell a million units a week for every pound that Oprah says she lost on it.”

Story Here

So. THEY get top billing over Pachter. REALLY? THEY get top billing? Also, Pachter's attach rate seems new. I gotta say, that description of them almost made me fall over in my chair.
 

Evlar

Banned
I enjoy that they offer the official first-week Brawl stats, then ignore the recent NPD data, defer to Chartz "estimates", AND imply a drop-off in game sales in the weeks after release is somehow unique to Wii games. It's a clusterfuck of sales analysis failure.
 

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
The Sphinx said:
I enjoy that they offer the official first-week Brawl stats, then ignore the recent NPD data, defer to Chartz "estimates", AND imply a drop-off in game sales in the weeks after release is somehow unique to Wii games. It's a clusterfuck of sales analysis failure.

I actually had to click the link to make sure it wasn't a joke thread.
 
Isn't PS3 software selling like crap, too? Replace "everyone buys it for Wii Sports" with "everyone buys it for bluray".

Seems like the 360 and DS are raking in the numbers, though.
 

Jammy

Banned
That's one of the worst articles about software I've ever read.

-What do they have to say about Halo 3's sales? They dropped off more.
-Why the fuck did they combine the two PlayStation's sales for Guitar Hero III? To make it look like PS3 sales aren't as anemic as they are?
-Why ********?
 

FrankT

Member
This is funny. I knew his site would take off and all, but to be cited in the NYT is on a whole new level altogether.
 

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
Danthrax said:
A "team of analysts," hilarious. The NYT is such a joke.

Seriously, you know your article isn't in the best shape when it would get lolz and locked as a thread on GAF.
 
When your writing staff doesn't play video games, this is what you get. Shame on you New York times!

I wonder what they'll do when they find that their "exclusive Smash Bros. not selling info" is complete bullshit!
 

Nicktals

Banned
Contact information for this author, as well as proof that VGbannz is just making stuff up would be helpful. I know the site kind of spawned from GAF, and I know gaffers are aware it's mostly guessing, but if people were to want to write to the NYT, what evidence would we present to prove that ioi and the site are just BS?
 

Michan

Member
Death_Born said:
When your writing staff doesn't play video games, this is what you get. Shame on you New York times!

Come on, I'm sure one of them has at least played Brain Age.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Nicktals said:
Contact information for this author, as well as proof that VGbannz is just making stuff up would be helpful. I know the site kind of spawned from GAF, and I know gaffers are aware it's mostly guessing, but if people were to want to write to the NYT, what evidence would we present to prove that ioi and the site are just BS?

The fact that he updates his numbers retroactively to match NPD and MC, thus proving that he has no independent source of numbers that he trusts.
 
I can see it.

NYT Journalist: Hy, I'm from NYT, we wanted to ask you about your site VG Chartz, how many people work for your site?

VG Chartz: Oh!, we have a team of 15 analysts, we study video game sales, we have insiders on all shops in the world so we can make precises estimates every week.

NYT: So awesome!, I mean you sound so professional and all, I don't know a shit about videogames, but is more easy with people so well prepared like you.Your site is gonna be named on my next article!!

VG Chartz: Really! Awesome!!! $_$
 
lololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololol
ololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololololol
 

drohne

hyperbolically metafictive
oh nyt -- it's like nobody anywhere can write well about videogames, even if they're employed someplace legitimate. isn't the 'z' at the end of 'chartz' a tipoff if nothing else

a team of analystz
 

Sharp

Member
I wouldn't call Smash an example of a game that has had trouble selling on the Wii, exactly. Even ioi should realize that selling one hundred or more per week of the same title at one store is rather impressive, one would think. Perhaps someone should let NYT know about the questionable nature of one of its primary sources?
 

lyre

Member
Jtyettis said:
This is funny. I knew his site would take off and all, but to be cited in the NYT is on a whole new level altogether.
It's only because of something like this:
googlawls856.png



Anyone who writes for a mainstream media and has no idea about games will invariably source ioi and the numbers he pulled from his ass.
 
LOL^3.

During its launch the game sold 1.4 millions. It sold the SAME amout in the rest of the month to reach 2.7 millions. A drop of 90% would mean that next month it will sell only around 270k (with launch) or 140k (without launch numbers. This is more in resonance with ioi's site prediction).

LOL^infinite to NYT and ioi's website.
 

Evlar

Banned
lyre said:
It's only because of something like this:
googlawls856.png



Anyone who writes for a mainstream media and has no idea about games will invariably source ioi and the numbers he pulled from his ass.
I just love Google's text grab from **Chartz.
 
lyre said:
It's only because of something like this:
googlawls856.png



Anyone who writes for a mainstream media and has no idea about games will invariably source ioi and the numbers he pulled from his ass.

I hate to admit, but this is all a bit of a guessing game.

Perfect.
 

Sharp

Member
lyre said:
It's only because of something like this:
http://xs226.xs.to/xs226/08171/googlawls856.png[img]


Anyone who writes for a mainstream media and has no idea about games will invariably source ioi and the numbers he pulled from his ass.[/QUOTE]
I see Google's sophisticated text grabbing algorithm has been improved yet again.
 

Narcosis

Member
Is anyone really amazed at any game, on any console, which releases with huge tournament events at midnight openings on top of mass pre orders to NOT have some signifigant dropiff after it;'s first week?

C'mon now, 2.7 mil in a non-Xmas month is HUGE and Smash bros selling at a large dropoff would still be selling more than just about any other current title on the market.
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
Time to write nasty letters to the Gray Lady.

jmdajr said:
Man there just are not enough good casual games for that system.

I know some older folks that have that system, and it's hard to recommend anything other than wii sports. I guess um.. maybe brain age? Wii fit will probably eb the next best bet.

Wat. Mario Party? Wario Ware? Wii Play? Link's X-bow Training?
 

jmdajr

Member
Man there just are not enough good casual games for that system.

I know some older folks that have that system, and it's hard to recommend anything other than wii sports. I guess um.. maybe brain age? Wii fit will probably be the next best bet.
 
I don't get it really, just the fact that the "s" of charts is replaced by a "z" should give you an idea about the credibility of that site - even if you have no idea about the subject whatsoever.

Nicktals said:
Contact information for this author, as well as proof that VGbannz is just making stuff up would be helpful. I know the site kind of spawned from GAF, and I know gaffers are aware it's mostly guessing, but if people were to want to write to the NYT, what evidence would we present to prove that ioi and the site are just BS?
Just a simple example of the top of my head because there was some idiot in another thread using that site to back up his claims.

That site has Uncharted at 1.46m. Last we know Uncharted was at 377k for the US and 39k for Japan. Even if you (very generously) assume it's now at 450k and 50k you still have roughly one million sales left for "other" (meaning predominantly Europe). We know for a fact that the UK is Europe's biggest single market and is also the market Uncharted has been the most successful in. We also know for a fact that Uncharted sold 100k but not 200k in the UK. Even if we (veeery generously) assume it has sold 199k that still leaves about 800k for the rest of Europe etc. :lol .
 

Atreides

Member
The average Wii owner buys only 3.7 games a year, compared with 4.7 for Xbox 360 owners and 4.6 for PlayStation 3 owners, said a Wedbush Morgan analyst, Michael Pachter. “It reflects the broadening of the demographic,” he said. “Nintendo’s market doesn’t feel the same sense of urgency to buy every game that’s coming out.”

Is that true? I thought that Wii tie ratio was higher than PS3 tie ratio.

Edit: fixed.
 
Phife Dawg said:
I don't get it really, just the fact that the "s" of charts is replaced by a "z" should give you an idea about the credibility of that site - even if you have no idea about the subject whatsoever.


Just a simple example of the top of my head because there was some idiot in another thread using that site to back up his claims.

That site has Uncharted at 1.46m. Last we know Uncharted was at 377k for the US and 39k for Japan. Even if you (very generously) assume it's now at 450k and 50k you still have roughly one million sales left for "other" (meaning predominantly Europe). We know for a fact that the UK is Europe's biggest single market and is also the market Uncharted has been the most successful in. We also know for a fact that Uncharted sold 100k but not 200k in the UK. Even if we (veeery generously) assume it has sold 199k that still leaves about 800k for the rest of Europe etc. :lol .

Yeah and you cited only one example. The site is build on crap like this one. NPD/Media Create/ Gfk compared with constructors's shipments are the best way to have a decent estimation of the markets.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
“The number we got back for return was pretty minimal,” a saleswoman, Christina Giori, said. “Maybe eight copies out of 500. It’s something Nintendo’s really trying to crack down on.”

What does that quote even mean? Is Nintendo trying to prevent retailers from allowing returns? Is that even possible, for Nintendo to dictate what a retailer can accept for return?

If you see any one bringing a Nintendo game back to your store, for any reason, shoot them and make an example.
 

Danthrax

Batteries the CRISIS!
Minsc said:
What does that quote even mean? Is Nintendo trying to prevent retailers from allowing returns? Is that even possible, for Nintendo to dictate what a retailer can accept for return?

If you see any one bringing a Nintendo game back to your store, for any reason, shoot them and make an example.

:lol I think the saleswoman meant Nintendo is cracking down on faulty copies that have to be returned in the first place. I think.



norinrad21 said:
Pachter is an awesome member of NeoGAF

Fixed.
 

Chris FOM

Member
Given that we got tie ratios after December 2007, and the 360 was at 7.0, the Wii was at 4.64, and the PS3 was at 4.26, and the Wii launched a week after the PS3, WTF is Pachter going on about? How can it have a higher tie ratio and yet sell games more slowly?
 

FrankT

Member
Chris FOM said:
Given that we got tie ratios after December 2007, and the 360 was at 7.0, the Wii was at 4.64, and the PS3 was at 4.26, and the Wii launched a week after the PS3, WTF is Pachter going on about? How can it have a higher tie ratio and yet sell games more slowly?


He is saying within a year. Not LTD averages. Had to take a second look at that as well.
 
The entire article is horrendous, its not just the fact that it sources ioi...

I don't know if the intention is to diminish Wii software successes or help negative publisher perceptions of the platform but the article pretty much comes across that way.

There are other companies having success other than those making cooking mama and sudoku games... Hudson-soft are a footnote in an article which basically states "Wii sells well, but Wii owners don't buy as many games as Xbox360 PS3 owners, and games x,y,z don't count".

I mean Guitar Hero 3 has outperformed all expectations on Wii and continues to do so month in month out despite lacking the significant DLC functionality the other versions have. They quite rightly point out Hudson, but its more of a footnote in the article. What about Majesco, SEGA or any number of other companies that seem to be executing a sound strategy on Wii? While mentioning the likes of Zack & Wiki they neglect to mention Capcom have been reported as pleased with RE4, Umbrella Chronicles and Zack & Wiki sales etc. Expectations were fairly realistic on the latter if I remember rightly. No More Heroes is a niche title and would be niche on any platform, even still, it's likely outperforming Killer 7 on Gamecube. They even go so far as to ignore the fact that Smash Bros sold shitloads of units in a non-holiday month, fail to acknowledge the magnitude of its success and make a big deal out of its inevitable drop-off, which is gonna look pretty stupid when it still posts good numbers in April.

Do tie ratios refer to how many games console users buy per year? I always thought it referred to the mean cumulative game ownership of the entire userbase. In any case, it appears they're choosing to ignore manufacturer bundles but recognise retailer bundles in that calculation.

In summary, whatever NYT

Jtyettis said:
He is saying within a year. Not LTD averages. Had to take a second look at that as well.

He posts here doesn't he? I'd like to know how he arrived at those numbers. What the userbase buys in a year will obviously depend on whats scheduled to come out. LTD averages FTW
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Chris FOM said:
Given that we got tie ratios after December 2007, and the 360 was at 7.0, the Wii was at 4.64, and the PS3 was at 4.26, and the Wii launched a week after the PS3, WTF is Pachter going on about? How can it have a higher tie ratio and yet sell games more slowly?
Plus Wii sold more software in Jan and March then anyone and was extremely close in Feb. How does the tie ratio go down that much
 
So wait, 360 and PS3 have essentially the same tie ratio? That surprises me, though obviously there are a lot more 360s in America.
 
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